The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" Reform Choice under the Transformation of Development Mode

Objectively assess the "Eleventh Five-Year" reform process, predict and judge the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" reform situation, and have certain reference value for the preparation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". To this end, the China Reform and Development Institute organized the “2010 China Reform Survey Questionnaire” in November 2010 and collected 246 valid questionnaires. Among them, experts from central and local party and government organs accounted for 26.83%, experts from universities and research institutions accounted for 64.63%, and experts from other fields accounted for 8.54%.

1. The overall progress of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" reform is good, but in some respects it is still not suitable for the needs of the transformation of development mode.
1. The overall progress of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" reform is good, especially in the areas of public service system and other areas with outstanding highlights.

Overall, 5.59% of the experts believe that the "Eleventh Five-Year" reform has made a major breakthrough, and 70.89% of experts believe that there is progress, the total of the two is 76.38%. In the specific field, three reforms have made significant progress.

Regarding rural reform, experts who believe that there are major breakthroughs and progress have been 16.32% and 61.51% respectively. Regarding the reform of the public service system, experts who believe that there are major breakthroughs and progress have 8.40% and 61.51% respectively. This confirms that the relevant reforms focusing on solving the people's livelihood issues are the 11th Five-Year Plan. The highlights of the judges accounted for 51.46% of the experts. Regarding opening up to the outside world, 12.55% and 66.53% of the experts respectively believe that there are major breakthroughs and progress.

2. The macro-system reform has made progress, but there is a clear gap with social expectations.

Experts believe that the macro-systems of finance, taxation, finance, and investment have all made progress in the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, but the degree of progress is limited.

In terms of fiscal and taxation system reform, 43.28% of experts believe that there is progress, and 46.64% of experts believe that there is basically no progress. In the field of financial system reform, 56.41% of experts believe that there is progress, and 34.19% of experts believe that there is basically no progress. In the field of investment system reform, 46.38% of experts believe that there is progress, and 39.57% of experts believe that there is basically no progress.

3. The reforms in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" have been lagging behind, seriously restricting the transformation of the development mode.

Most experts believe that the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" income distribution and administrative system reforms lag significantly behind the reform process in other areas. Compared with the expectation, the experts who think that the income distribution reform is lagging behind are as high as 85.42%; the experts who think that the administrative system reform is lagging behind reach 62.50%.

In the field of income distribution, 21.10% of experts believe that there is progress, 56.54% of experts believe that there is basically no progress, and 21.10% of experts believe that there is a retrogression.

In the field of administrative system reform, 62.76% of the experts believe that the “Eleventh Five-Year” administrative system reform has not achieved the expected goals in many aspects, and 20.50% of the experts believe that the reform target is basically lost.

Second, the situation in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is becoming more and more complicated, and there is an urgent need for major breakthroughs in various aspects.
1. The external environment of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will undergo major changes.

The scale of external demand is difficult to return to pre-crisis levels. 63.18% of the experts believe that the external demand of China in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will continue to recover, but the scale is difficult to reach the pre-crisis level, and the structure will undergo major changes. The pressure for RMB appreciation will gradually increase. 78.66% of the experts believe that the pressure will be larger and larger; the experts who believe that the basic situation and the mitigation are basically only 12.13% and 3.35%.

2. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" macro economy will return to medium-speed growth.

The GDP growth rate will remain in the range of 8% to 10%, and the CPI will remain at a moderate level. Judging the GDP growth rate of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 43.75% of experts believe that it will be between 8% and 10%; 38.33% of experts believe that it will remain between 7% and 8%. For the “Twelfth Five-Year” CPI forecast, 37.66% of experts believe that it will be between 4% and 5%. The labor shortage will not be serious even if it arrives. 48.54% of the experts believe that the shortage of labor supply in China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is unlikely to occur, and the overall labor force will remain in surplus. 44.77% of the experts believe that there is a high probability of labor shortage in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, but it will not be very serious.

3. Preventing unforeseen risks and evading middle-income traps puts new demands on the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”.

Unforeseen risks are more dispersed in the next five years. When asked about the unforeseen risks faced by China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, more than 70% of the experts chose the sudden burst of mass events and the turmoil of international economic and political patterns and order; the proportion of experts selected between 30% and 40% is energy. The crisis, the environmental crisis caused by climate change and the renewed impact of the financial crisis.

Preventing the middle income trap has become an important goal of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". 37.66%, 15.90% and 7.95% of the experts believe that the probability of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" falling into the middle income trap is 3, 4, 5, a total of 61.51%, indicating the risk of China's "12th Five-Year" middle income trap. Relatively high.

4. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" urgently needs to make major breakthroughs in transforming the development mode through reform.

The formation of a consumption-led development pattern as soon as possible focuses on reform breakthroughs. For the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” of China’s household consumption rate, 56.49% of experts believe that it will reach 40%~45%. When asked about the key to establishing a long-term mechanism for expanding consumer demand during the 12th Five-Year Plan, 90.76% of experts believe that it is necessary to speed up the adjustment of income distribution structure and generally increase the income of urban and rural residents; 61.34% and 50.00% of experts believe that it is necessary to establish and improve basics. Public service system, promoting the equalization of basic public services and accelerating the process of urban-rural integration, and comprehensively launching rural consumption.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" must take the lead in making breakthroughs in major areas of reform. When asked about the most likely reforms in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 65% of experts believe that income distribution is most likely to achieve breakthroughs, indicating that experts have high hopes for income distribution reform; in addition, there are 49.58% and 44.58% respectively. Experts believe that market reforms such as resource products and reform of fiscal and taxation systems are most likely to make breakthroughs.

The breakthrough in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" reform is to establish a high-level reform and coordination mechanism as soon as possible. 69.87% of the experts considered it very necessary, and 18.41% of the experts believed that there was a certain necessity, and the total of the two was 88.28%.

Third, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" to improve the market economy as the goal of economic system reform choice
1. Efforts will be made to promote the reform of the income distribution system and rationalize the relationship between income distribution.

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” controls the income distribution gap and faces severe challenges. 49.16% of the experts believe that the gap between the urban and rural income distribution of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will continue to expand, and the proportion of experts who will be relieved is 34.87%. Only 0.42% of experts believe that this gap will be significantly reduced.

Accelerating the reform of monopoly industries is the key to narrowing the income distribution gap. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” should narrow the income distribution gap, 65.83% of the experts believe that it is necessary to regulate the income distribution of monopoly industries, and “receiving rents and dividends” for state-owned enterprises; 60.83% of experts believe that farmers’ income should be effectively increased; 42.08% of experts believe that Establish a regular wage growth mechanism.

2. Start a new round of fiscal and taxation financial system reform as soon as possible.

We will promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system with a focus on rationalizing the fiscal and taxation relations between the central and provincial governments. When asked about the breakthrough of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" fiscal and taxation system reform, 34.58% of the experts believe that the breakthrough is to adjust the fiscal and taxation relationship between the central and provincial governments. Judging the conditions for the reform of the fiscal and taxation system in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 28.33% of the experts believe that they are mature and should advance as soon as possible; 55.83% of the experts believe that the conditions are basically sufficient and should be gradually promoted.

The key to curbing the unreasonable rise in housing prices is to reduce the dependence of local governments on land finance. 47.50% of the experts believe that the fundamental measure to curb excessive housing prices is to reduce the dependence of local governments on land finance. 20.42% of the experts believe that the housing security system needs to be improved as soon as possible.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" strives to comprehensively promote resource tax reform. 33.47% of the experts believe that the timing and conditions are mature and need to be promoted as soon as possible; 51.46% of the experts believe that they are basically mature and can expand the pilot and gradually advance. The total of the two is 84.93%.

Serve to form a basic pattern of consumption-led and accelerate the process of financial transformation. 47.50% of the experts agree that the financial system needs to transform from investment finance to consumer finance as soon as possible to serve the consumption-led development.

3. Increase the anti-monopoly process and promote the development of private enterprises.

The reform of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” state-owned enterprises and monopoly industries has lagged behind. In the field of state-owned enterprise reform, 34.60% of the experts believe that the “Eleventh Five-Year” state-owned enterprise reform has made progress, and 43.04% of the experts believe that there is basically no progress. In the field of monopoly industry reform, 51.90% of the experts believe that the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” monopoly industry reform has basically no progress, and 33.33% of experts believe that the monopoly industry reform has gone backwards.

Promoting the development of the private economy focuses on accelerating the anti-monopoly process. When asked about the main obstacles facing the development of the private economy in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 35.00% of the experts believe that the reform of the monopoly industry is lagging behind. In addition, 22.50% of the experts respectively chose two factors: the entry threshold is too high and the independent innovation ability is insufficient.

4. Further increase the intensity of rural reform.

Put the increase in farmers' incomes in a more prominent position. For the forecast of the actual annual growth rate of per capita net income of rural households in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 36.29% of the experts are expected to reach 5%~7%; 34.18% of experts believe that it will reach 7%~9%.

The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for China to accelerate urbanization. 66.11% of the experts expect that the urbanization rate of China in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is expected to increase to 50% to 55%; 21.34% of experts believe that it is expected to reach 55% to 60%.

Various ways have been taken to accelerate the process of urbanization. 33.75% of the experts believe that the main way to accelerate the urbanization process is to develop small and medium-sized towns; 32.50% of experts believe that urban agglomerations should be developed. The proportion of large and medium-sized cities that focus on developing small cities is 19.17% and 12.50% respectively.

Solving the problem of rural land and public services is the most urgent task for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” rural reform. In the judgment of the most urgent tasks of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” rural reform, 87.50% of the experts chose the rural land system reform, and 77.50% of the experts chose the rural public service system reform. Regarding the focus of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” rural land system reform, 37.24% of the experts believe that a unified urban and rural construction land market should be established as soon as possible.

4. The choice of social system reform focusing on the equalization of basic public services in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”
1. Clarify the objectives of the “12th Five-Year Plan” basic public service system.

According to the expectation of the construction of China's basic public service system during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 12.92% of the experts believe that the basic public service system of “institutional docking, perfect system and smooth flow” will be formed completely; 45.83% of experts believe that it will be basically completed; 31.67% The experts are expected to be initially completed. 9.58% of experts believe that a relatively complete system cannot be formed.

Increase the proportion of basic public service expenditures to fiscal expenditures. 39.50% of the experts believe that the proportion of basic public service expenditure to the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" should be increased from 32% in 2009 to 40% to 45%; 23.11% of experts believe that it should be increased to 45% to 50%.

2. Realize the unification of the basic public service system in urban and rural areas as soon as possible.

40.00% of experts believe that the key to promoting urban-rural integration is to accelerate the integration of urban and rural basic public services. For the reform of the household registration system, 61.60% of the experts believe that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period will still be in the pilot, and there will be new major breakthroughs in some areas.

3. Efforts will be made to promote the citizenship of basic public services for migrant workers, and “letting migrant workers” become history.

Promoting the citizenship of basic public services for migrant workers and "letting migrant workers become history" should be a major project of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". 10.46% of the experts believe that the timing and conditions are mature and can be promoted as soon as possible; 43.51% of the experts believe that they are basically mature, but they should consider the technical details; the two together total 53.97%.

4. Efforts were made to achieve a major breakthrough in the reform of the education and cultural industries during the 12th Five-Year Plan.

Actively explore the extension of compulsory education years. On the issue of expanding the scope of compulsory education, 16.74% of the experts believe that the inclusion of high school education and vocational education in the scope of compulsory education is fully qualified; 55.23% of the experts believe that they are basically qualified, and the total of the two is 71.97%.

Improving the ability of independent innovation focuses on increasing the reform of the science and technology system. 80.75% of the experts believe that the key to improving the ability of independent innovation is to promote the reform of the science and technology system and build an innovation system with enterprise R&D as the main body; 55.23% of the experts believe that it is to reform the government scientific research management system and increase investment in science and technology; 52.72% of the experts believe that Reform the education system as soon as possible to cultivate young people's creativity.

Taking the development of cultural industry as a major strategy of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, 46.41% of the experts believe that the proportion of cultural industry in the end of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” may reach 2.5%~5%, and 40.08% of experts believe that it is possible to reach 5%~8 % has become an important pillar industry of the national economy.

Multi-pronged approach to solve employment problems. 76.89% of the experts believe that the key to alleviating employment pressure in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is to adjust the industrial structure and vigorously develop the service industry; 56.30% of the experts believe that it is to adjust the ownership structure and develop the non-public economy; 46.22% of the experts believe that it is necessary to vigorously develop the profession. Education, improve professional quality.

V. The choice of administrative system reform focusing on government transformation in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”
1. The focus of reform is to improve the decision-making and participation mechanisms of public governance.

For the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" administrative system reform, 57.98% of the experts believe that the decision-making participation mechanism and public governance structure should be improved with the focus on protecting citizens' right to know, express and participate; in addition, there are 47.06% and 44.54% respectively. And 43.70% of the experts believe that it is clear that the central and local governments share the public responsibilities, reform the government performance evaluation system, and continue to improve the "big department" system.

2. Accelerate the process of reforming the province directly.

The reform of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” directly governed the county is generally expected to be good. 18.91% of the experts believe that the province directly governs the county will be fully promoted nationwide; 64.29% of experts believe that the province directly governs the county will continue to pilot in some provinces.

3. Improve local government debt management mechanisms and control local government debt risks.

Generally speaking, the local government debt problem needs to pay more attention during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. 36.13% of the experts believe that the debt risk is very high and needs high attention; 50.84% ​​of the experts believe that the risk is relatively high; the two together total 86.97%.

4. Improve the transparency of fiscal disclosure and comprehensively strengthen financial budget supervision.

In response to financial supervision, 52.97% of the experts believe that it is necessary to improve the transparency of financial budgets and finalize the information disclosure system.

5. Put control of administrative expenditures in a prominent position in the reform of the administrative system.

Judging from the trend of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” administrative cost as a proportion of fiscal expenditure, 43.46% of experts believe that it will continue to grow; 35.02% of experts believe that the current level is basically maintained, and the total of the two is 78.48%. 20.25% of experts expect a reduction.

6. Actively create conditions to promote the reform of the property declaration system for public servants.

For the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the full implementation of the public employee income and property declaration system forecasts, 13.03% and 44.54% of the experts believe that it is very possible and possible; 32.77% of experts believe that it is unlikely, 7.98% of experts Think impossible.
 

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